
The IEA's September monthly oil report says global oil demand growth is slowing, led by a contraction in Chinese consumption for a fourth straight month. It forecasts 2024 demand growth of 900 kb/d and a 2025 increase of 950 kb/d, while non-OPEC+ supply rises.
Weaker demand growth and rising supply outside OPEC+ point to a looser crude market, which is bearish for oil prices and related energy costs.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.