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The IEA's November report sees 2018 global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d and 2019 at 1.4 mb/d. Record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US more than offsets declines in Iran and Venezuela, and October refining margins fell to their lowest since 2014.
Strong supply growth and weaker refining margins point to a looser crude market and lower energy costs ahead. Lower oil prices ease input costs for feed producers, though slowing non-OECD demand adds downside risk.
iea.orgNov 13, 2018After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
