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The IEA expects global oil supply to rise by about 3 million barrels per day, outpacing demand and creating a sizeable surplus. The report projects a glut of around 4 million barrels per day in 2026.
The surplus estimate was revised from about 3.3 million barrels per day the previous month.
A large projected surplus for 2026 signals sustained downward pressure on crude prices, lowering diesel and freight costs for feed buyers. Weaker energy prices also reduce biofuel support for vegetable oil and corn demand.
reuters.comAlex LawlerOct 14, 2025After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
