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The IEA's January 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts global oil demand growth of 930 kb/d in 2026, up from 850 kb/d in 2025. It projects world supply rising 2.5 mb/d to 108.7 mb/d this year after December output fell 350 kb/d month on month.
Projected supply growth outpacing demand points to a looser crude market that caps energy-driven cost increases for feed buyers. The forecast is a scheduled data release that adds to the outlook for energy and biofuel input prices.
iea.orgJan 21, 2026After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
