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The IEA's January report says global oil demand growth slowed to 1.7 mb/d in late 2023 and is projected to ease to 1.2 mb/d in 2024. Supply is forecast to reach a record 103.5 mb/d, led by the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
Slowing demand growth combined with record non-OPEC supply points to a looser crude market. That is bearish for energy prices and reduces cost support for biofuel-linked vegetable oils.
iea.orgIEA - International Energy AgencyFeb 1, 2024After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
