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The IEA's June Oil Market Report forecasts 2025 world oil demand growth of 720 kb/d, slightly below the prior estimate, citing weak US and Chinese deliveries. It also reports global supply rose 330 kb/d in May to 105 mb/d as OPEC+ unwound voluntary cuts.
Rising supply and softer demand growth point to a looser crude market, which tends to weigh on energy prices and the cost of diesel and fuel inputs.
iea.orgIEA - International Energy AgencyJul 1, 2025After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
