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The IEA's monthly report raised its forecast for 2025 global oil supply growth to 2.7 million bpd from 2.5 million bpd, and projects a further 2.1 million bpd increase in 2026. The agency linked the revision to OPEC+ unwinding its second layer of cuts faster than scheduled.
A larger projected surplus means more crude available than demand requires, which weighs on oil prices. The forecast reinforces the bearish outlook for energy costs that feed into feed production.
reuters.comAlex LawlerOct 1, 2025After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
