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The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, though it still expects supply to exceed demand by about 3.84 million barrels per day. Brent crude was trading lower, down more than 15% over the period cited.
A persistent surplus of roughly 4% of world demand keeps downward pressure on crude prices, which feeds into energy and fertilizer input costs for feed producers.
reuters.comRobert HarveyDec 11, 2025After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
