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The IEA's August 2019 Oil Market Report says global oil demand fell 160 kb/d year-on-year in May and grew only 520 kb/d in January to May. It cut its 2019 and 2020 demand growth forecasts by 100 kb/d and 50 kb/d, to 1.1 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d, and reports OPEC output fell 2 mb/d year-on-year in July.
Weaker demand growth and a lower forecast point to a looser oil balance, which lowers energy prices and reduces support for biofuel-linked feedstocks such as soybean oil and palm oil.
iea.orgAug 8, 2019After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
