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The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts on-highway diesel averaging $4.23 a gallon in 2023 and $3.70 in 2024, down from 2022 levels. The decline is based on lower diesel and gasoline demand growth and rising global refinery capacity.
A forecast decline in diesel prices points to lower fuel and freight costs for feed buyers through 2024. Rising refinery output supports the bearish price outlook.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.