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Russia and Ukraine struck 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October 2026, more than four times the previous six months. Almost no merchant ships have called at Ukrainian ports since late July, and a maritime truce is seen as the only likely route to resuming trade.
Sustained drone attacks on shipping keep Black Sea grain and oilseed exports constrained, which supports global wheat, corn and vegetable oil prices and keeps buyers reliant on alternative origins.
geopoliticalmonitor.comSimone ChiusaNov 12, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
