
USDA reported that the US corn harvest was 81% complete as of November 8, five percentage points behind the five-year average. Soybean harvest was 92% complete, while winter wheat was 89% planted and 49% rated good to excellent, up five percentage points from the prior week.
Grain and soybean futures slipped ahead of Tuesday’s USDA reports.
The slower corn harvest could temporarily constrain harvest-time availability, while improved winter wheat conditions support prospects for next year’s crop. The upcoming USDA estimates remain a near-term source of price uncertainty.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.