
The U.S. national average for regular gasoline fell to about $4.01 per gallon on Nov. 9, down roughly 36 cents from a month earlier, while diesel averaged about $6.17.
Crude oil’s decline has pulled gasoline lower, but diesel remains expensive amid tight distillate supplies and disruptions to refining and energy flows.
Lower crude prices weigh on WTI, but constrained distillate supply and strong product margins support diesel prices, keeping fuel costs high for trucking and farm operations.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.