On-road diesel is in the high $5.60s, while crude hovers in the $80s, and crack spreads have risen above $100 per barrel. Distillate inventories are at their lowest levels since the early 2000s, and elevated US Gulf Coast exports are tightening domestic supply.
Low distillate stocks and strong export pull point to continued high diesel prices into Q3 and Q4, lifting farm fuel and freight costs for feed buyers.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.