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Following the US midterm elections, crude and Brent oil fell sharply as markets priced in a possibility of de-escalation in the Persian Gulf; soybean prices also continued to slide. The article says Russian wheat exports were estimated at about 3 million tonnes in October, with low-priced Black Sea and Baltic offers adding competition, while global wheat trade was reportedly running 19 million tonnes below earlier expectations.
Lower oil prices can weigh on oilseed markets, while competitive Russian wheat offers add supply pressure and limit wheat rallies. Reduced global wheat trade expectations point to less demand than previously anticipated, although the article gives no specific price response to that estimate.
mecardo.com.auNick BoothNov 6, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
