
Oil prices edged lower ahead of the Friday Trump-Putin meeting, with the market weighing whether it would ease sanctions risk. OPEC left its 2025 demand and non-OPEC+ supply forecasts unchanged, while raising 2026 demand growth and cutting non-OPEC+ supply growth.
The EIA slightly raised its 2025 U.S. crude output estimate.
Lower crude prices reduce biofuel and energy input costs, which can weigh on vegetable oil and corn ethanol values. A tighter 2026 outlook from OPEC offers some support for energy prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.