
Saudi Arabia's crude output rose the most in three years in June as the kingdom responded to Trump's pressure to cool gasoline prices and offset expected Iran sanctions. Saudi officials privately worry they opened supply too fast and are struggling to sell the extra barrels.
Excess Saudi barrels and mismatched timing with Iran sanctions pressure crude prices, lowering energy input costs. Policy-driven supply shifts can quickly reverse price trends.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.