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Oil prices fell below $100/bbl after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Brent dropped as much as 16% to near $94, and WTI posted its steepest drop in almost six years.
European diesel futures fell as much as 23%, with the API reporting a larger-than-expected US crude build.
The ceasefire eases fears of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, reducing crude and diesel price support and lowering energy input costs for feed production, transport and fertilizer. Prices will depend on whether talks produce a durable deal and normal strait flows.
think.ing.comEwa Manthey, Warren PattersonApr 8, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
US-Iran two-week ceasefire sent oil below $100 and European diesel futures down as much as 23%, directly driving the ULSD collapse on April 8.
European diesel futures fell as much as 23% and oil slumped below $100 on the ceasefire, directly transmitting to ULSD benchmarks.
