Brent Rebounds 2.4% to $96.86 as Iran Reports Two More Tanker Fires and UKMTO Logs Projectile Strike Off Qatar

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 9, 2026Dollar struggles to rebound as fragile US-Iran ceasefire keeps markets wary | Reuters-2.9%
• Oct 11, 2019Oil rises 2% after reports of Iranian tanker attack | Reuters+0.9%
• Oct 1, 2026Brent up 4% as U.S. said to send more troops to Mideast, resume bombing Iran By Investing.com+2.6%
• Oct 31, 2024Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack+3.9%
• Jun 23, 2025South African rand drops to one-month low after US strikes Iran-11.9%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Apr 9, 2026Dollar struggles to rebound as fragile US-Iran ceasefire keeps markets wary | Reuters-3.3%
• Oct 11, 2019Oil rises 2% after reports of Iranian tanker attack | Reuters+0.6%
• Oct 1, 2026Brent up 4% as U.S. said to send more troops to Mideast, resume bombing Iran By Investing.com-2.3%
• Oct 31, 2024Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack+4.5%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.2%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2026Brent up 4% as U.S. said to send more troops to Mideast, resume bombing Iran By Investing.com-3.7%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.9%
• Sep 29, 2018Brent hits 4-year high as U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten supply+1.6%
• Oct 7, 2024Bearish oil positions left prices primed for rebound after missile strikes – JKempEnergy.com+1.6%
• Mar 2, 2026Diesel and Gasoline Prices Rise on Iran Strikes - TT+36.4%