Dollar struggles to rebound as fragile US-Iran ceasefire keeps markets wary

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 12, 2026Oil settles up 9% as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed | Reuters+10.6%
• Feb 28, 2026Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades | Reuters+35.6%
• Mar 25, 2026Dollar rises as US-Iran divide dashes de-escalation hopes | Reuters+10.2%
• Mar 6, 2026Iran war sends US crude futures up 12% a barrel | Reuters+18.2%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output | Reuters+35.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026European markets hurting as Iran war widens | Reuters+31.0%
• Mar 12, 2026Oil settles up 9% as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed | Reuters+23.1%
• Feb 28, 2026Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades | Reuters+31.0%
• Mar 25, 2026Dollar rises as US-Iran divide dashes de-escalation hopes | Reuters+15.0%
• Mar 6, 2026Iran war sends US crude futures up 12% a barrel | Reuters+16.6%