The Hormuz Premium: How the 2026 Fertiliser Shock Rewired Asia's Nitrogen Supply

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Nov 17, 2022Russia supply shock forces rethink for chemicals and fertiliser groups-0.4%
• Mar 10, 2026Nitrogen and Phosphate Markets Enter Supply Shock+2.8%
• Oct 13, 2026Fertilizer Prices Stay Volatile as Strait of Hormuz, Russia Disrupt Supply | Iowa PBS+1.0%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%
• May 26, 2026Fertilizer Prices Jump 90% As Hormuz Shock Threatens Agricultural Output-19.8%

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 26, 2026Fertilizer Prices Stay Elevated Despite Improving Global Supply-0.3%
• Jan 26, 2026No fertilizer price relief expected for this year | The Western Producer-0.3%
• Jul 2, 2025Farmers Can't Catch a Break: Fertilizer Prices, Compared to Corn Prices, Are Now Some of the Worst in History - AgWeb-3.1%
• Nov 28, 2022Ahead of the Open | November 28, 2022 - Pro Farmer-5.0%
• Jul 21, 2022After the Bell | July 21, 2022 - Pro Farmer-5.2%