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StoneX analyst Josh Linville says nitrogen and phosphate markets have moved from shipping delays to actual production losses and stalled export flows. New Orleans urea values are up 77% from early December.
Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia face export constraints, and China is absent from exports until at least August.
Actual lost production and stalled exports from major urea and phosphate exporters tighten global fertiliser balances, pushing up input costs that feed through to corn and feed grain economics.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleMar 10, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
