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Phosphate prices to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay rose sharply this year because of the Middle East war, with Argentine DAP/MAP at $825/t cfr on 19 March, the highest since August 2022. Imports have held up so far but are expected to slow as affordability weakens.
Up to 488,000t of DAP/MAP/TSP has been sold on the spot market for arrival by May.
War-driven phosphate price increases in the Southern Cone threaten to cut import volumes, which could weigh on fertilizer demand and farm input affordability in the region.
argusmedia.comAdrien SeewaldMar 25, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
