
Morocco is gaining share in European phosphate imports as China and Russia exports decline. DAP prices rose about 10% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2024 but remained 3% below a year earlier, according to a World Bank report citing Chinese phosphate and Russian ammonia export restrictions.
Export restrictions from China and Russia are tightening global DAP and ammonia availability, supporting phosphate prices and raising costs for feed mineral and fertilizer buyers.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.