
The Financial Times reports that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions and energy price shocks have disrupted chemicals and fertilizer supply chains. Russia supplies a large share of global ammonia nitrate, potash and other fertilizer components.
Concentrated Russian supply and sanctions-driven disruption keep fertilizer costs elevated, which pressures farm margins and supports grain prices through reduced input use.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.