Grain prices keep easing; no 'midterms effect' yet, but Black Sea expectations weigh

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices+2.4%
• Nov 17, 2022Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports-1.7%
• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+4.8%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.5%
• Oct 23, 2026Wheat prices fall to 14-week low on Black Sea hopes | Peepals-0.6%

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices-1.4%
• Aug 18, 2026Problems with Russian Black Sea exports are starting to pressure Central Asian grain markets+0.4%
• Oct 28, 2026Barley Market Update: Black Sea Talks Cap Prices, EU Sowing Mixed — CMB News+0.2%
• Nov 17, 2022Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports+1.0%
• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+0.1%

After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 23, 2026Wheat prices fall to 14-week low on Black Sea hopes | Peepals-2.9%
• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade-7.1%
• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets-2.2%
• Jul 14, 2022Wheat, soybeans fall on expectations of progress in Ukraine shipping talks - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+0.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Russia's promise to resume negotiations with Ukraine led to a speculative 2.5% decrease in wheat stock exchange quotes in one day.-3.4%