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Barley prices fell after reports of renewed Black Sea shipping talks between Russia and Turkey. Weak US wheat export performance is also keeping feed grains in a narrow range.
Peace-talk headlines reduce the weather and supply risk premium on feed grains, which weighs on barley and feed wheat prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.