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After Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25, the dollar rose 9.2% in Brazil between October 23 and 30. Soybean FOB Paranaguá gained 4.3% in reais, but the January 2027 Chicago contract fell 2.7% and Paranaguá FOB dropped 1.6% in dollars.
Corn rose even less, with traders holding back supply and export premiums easing early in the week.
A weaker real normally supports Brazilian export prices, but falling Chicago futures and lower premiums capped the gain, so the currency alone will not set soybean or corn export values. Buyers should watch Chicago and premiums alongside the exchange rate.
noticiasagricolas.com.brBiondNov 4, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
