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The US dollar closed up 0.86% in Brazil on August 13, 2018, at BRL 3.8973. The move followed Turkey's announcement of a USD 6 billion cash injection to support its banks and limit the lira's decline.
The Ibovespa index rose 1.28% the same day.
A stronger dollar against the real makes Brazilian soybean, corn and meal exports cheaper in dollar terms, which tends to pressure global feed prices. The effect here is from emerging-market contagion rather than agricultural supply.
anba.com.brAgência BrasilAug 13, 2018After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Turkish lira crisis triggered broad emerging-market risk-off and dollar strength, lifting USD/BRL to 3.8973 on Aug 13, directly within the move window.
