FAO Food Price Index rises in March as Near East conflict raises energy costs

After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Jan 28, 2018U.S. dollar impacts grain prices - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets+0.2%
• Mar 10, 2021Food prices rise globally as countries compete to replenish stockpiles, bad weather hits crops - ABC News-0.4%
• Nov 22, 2016A boost for harvest cash price | NSW-2.8%
• Jan 21, 2022The Fertilizer Crisis Is Getting Real for Europe Food Prices - Bloomberg+0.5%
• Oct 5, 2023Grain price jitters as rand creeps up to R20/$+4.8%

After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2026Economist sees growing risk for tighter feeder cattle margins in 2027-0.6%
• Feb 24, 2020Economist expects new considerations in grain markets | 2020-02-24 | World Grain-2.5%
• Mar 6, 2026Biofuels hit a crossroads as costs climb, policy lags | Feed & Grain+1.2%
• Jan 27, 2026Dollar sinks to four-year low as intervention risk lifts yen-0.7%
• Oct 30, 2024Argentina's Milei Taps Unseasonal Source in Search of Dollars: Shock Therapy | Financial Post+0.8%

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Mar 6, 2026Palm oil prices rise 4% as higher energy costs lift biofuel spread margins | S&P Global+18.2%
• Jun 25, 2025Diesel prices soar: Regional breakdown of  how Middle East conflict is impacting U.S gas and diesel prices | FleetOwner+1.8%
• Jan 3, 2023How Consumers and Businesses are Reacting to Food Price Inflation - Euromonitor.com-6.9%
• Feb 19, 2019Gas Prices Jump for Most of Country – AAA Newsroom-0.4%
• Sep 18, 2018Rupee closes at new all-time low as crude prices rise+5.8%

After 16 past bearish macro events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.1% to +1.7%), and +4.1% over 20.

• Feb 18, 2026Platts Thai 5% white rice at near one-month low; highest priced in Asia | S&P Global-8.3%
• Dec 26, 2025Strong baht squeezes rice exports as prices jump-5.1%
• Feb 19, 2025How the falling rupee is lowering Indian food prices for UAE shoppers-4.0%
• May 17, 2018Bangkok Post - Thai, India rice prices hurt by weaker currencies-5.0%
• Jan 31, 2018Bangkok Post - Rice exporters fear strong baht may bite shipments+1.1%