Dollar dives as bull case weakens but some investors expect a bounce

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 7, 2022Euro, sterling bounce, dollar drops as investors cash in-2.9%
• Sep 5, 2024Investor bets shift as dollar weakens with looming Fed rate cuts+0.2%
• Apr 6, 2021Yuan edges up as investors catch up with dollar weakness after holiday-0.2%
• Sep 1, 2025Stocks hit fresh record high but US dollar weakens as Fed rate cut expectations gain momentum-0.1%
• Nov 23, 2023Gold up on weaker dollar as investors wait on Fed rate path-0.4%

After 388 past bullish macro events, EURUSD moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 7, 2022Euro, sterling bounce, dollar drops as investors cash in+4.5%
• Sep 5, 2024Investor bets shift as dollar weakens with looming Fed rate cuts-0.6%
• Mar 26, 2025Why do we expect further weakening of the US dollar? - AP Institutional | Invesco-0.0%
• Sep 9, 2022Dollar slides as investors balance positions ahead of U.S. inflation data | Reuters+0.4%
• Oct 31, 2019Euro rises as dollar weakens on questions about more Fed rate cuts-0.4%

After 50 past neutral macro events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Aug 12, 2026Commodities: Weaker Dollar lacks growth catalyst – BNY+4.6%
• Nov 18, 2021Investors more bullish on yuan, short bets on Thai baht ease: Reuters poll | WSAU News/Talk 550 AM · 99.9 FM | Wausau, Stevens Point-0.8%
• Oct 8, 2026Election jolt fades as Brazil's fiscal math fails to hold investors' conviction. | 24EcoNews-0.8%
• Mar 20, 2020Dollar rampage spurs FX interventions, speculation of big G7 move+4.4%
• Jan 27, 2026Dollar sinks to four-year low as intervention risk lifts yen-0.1%