Investor bets shift as dollar weakens with looming Fed rate cuts

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 2, 2019Dollar weakens as September rate cut bets mount+0.4%
• Oct 31, 2019Gold gains as dollar weakens after Fed's interest rate cut-0.1%
• Nov 27, 2023US dollar weakens as Fed rate cut view weighs-0.2%
• Nov 23, 2023Gold up on weaker dollar as investors wait on Fed rate path-0.4%
• Dec 13, 2023Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cuts-1.0%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 27, 2023US dollar weakens as Fed rate cut view weighs-0.5%
• Dec 13, 2023Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cuts+1.7%
• Oct 31, 2019Euro rises as dollar weakens on questions about more Fed rate cuts-0.4%
• Nov 16, 2023Dollar steady as U.S. jobless claims boost Fed rate cut bets+0.2%
• Mar 7, 2025Dollar dives as bull case weakens but some investors expect a bounce+0.4%