
Meat processors and livestock producers continue to face high oil, diesel and fertilizer costs more than eight months after the US and Israel attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closed to most trade. The article notes Gulf-linked inventory draws, with US strategic petroleum reserves at their lowest since the early 1980s and diesel stocks at their lowest since the late 1980s, and no sign of a near-term reopening of the strait.
Higher diesel and fertilizer costs raise feed-grain production and transport costs, supporting prices for corn, soy meal and other feed inputs while squeezing processor margins. Persistent energy stress also keeps crude and diesel firm, feeding into freight and input costs for feed buyers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.