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On February 28, 2017 corn and soybean futures in Chicago jumped after leaked reports of Renewable Fuels Standard changes, including more summer ethanol usage and a tax credit for domestic biodiesel producers. The White House did not confirm the reports, and over 350,000 May corn contracts traded that day, a record.
Expected RFS changes would lift ethanol and biodiesel demand, and the record volume shows how strongly the market reacted. Prices may reverse if the rumored changes are not adopted.
ocj.comOhio Ag NetMar 1, 2017After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
