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Oilseed futures rallied sharply after the US EPA finalized biomass-based diesel blending limits for 2023-2025. Analysts link the surge to renewable diesel feedstock demand outpacing vegetable oil supplies and inventories.
Higher mandated biofuel blending increases demand for soybean oil and other vegetable oils, lifting feedstock prices and tightening supplies for meal-based feed users.
czapp.comWalter CroninJul 25, 2023After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The EPA's final biomass-based diesel blending volumes for 2023-2025 raised expected renewable diesel feedstock demand, a direct demand driver for soybean oil and the likely main source of the sharp rally.
