Riau's plantation office reports CPO prices have risen over the past six months, following international trends and the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference. Officials expect further gains on biodiesel demand under the B25 mandate and possible El Niño supply effects.
Expanding Indonesian biodiesel mandates and El Niño-related supply risk support higher palm oil prices. An analyst forecast of only 1 million tonnes of supply growth in 2017 against strong demand growth adds to the bullish case.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.