Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said exiting the OPEC output deal could take two to five months of negotiation. He said the deal's goal of cutting surplus oil is about two-thirds achieved, and Gazprom Neft suggested the pact could last into 2019.
The timing of any exit determines when extra barrels could return to the market. A gradual unwinding would limit near-term price downside for crude.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.