Argentina will charge a higher duty on biodiesel from July 1. Soybean quotations rose in Chicago after the Monday holiday.
A higher duty on Argentine biodiesel reduces export flows and can support soybean oil prices in global markets. The price effect is limited because the change affects only one export channel.
After 196 past neutral policy events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.