Following a slide after a near-unchanged US soybean harvest estimate in the November WASDE, prices rallied the next day. The US has moved to impose tariffs on biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia.
US biodiesel tariffs on Argentine and Indonesian product shift demand toward domestic soyoil, supporting soyoil prices and the broader oilseed complex.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.