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Nuveen's farmland team published a paper arguing that transportation decarbonization policies are expanding renewable fuel markets, led by California. It cites US renewable diesel output rising from 533 million gallons in 2020 to a projected 3.2 billion in 2024.
The paper links this growth to higher soybean oil use and the added demand for soybeans.
Growing renewable diesel feedstock demand supports soybean oil and soybean prices, and it tightens the market for crush and meal output.
nuveen.comBen Martin, Joseph VillaniMar 14, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
