
Reuters reports that U.S. demand for soybean oil is expected to far outstrip supply by 2023, citing a BMO Capital Markets report from October 2020. BMO estimates incremental soybean oil demand of 8 billion pounds by 2023 from expanding renewable diesel production.
Growing biofuel feedstock demand tightens soybean oil balances, supporting soybean oil and vegetable oil prices and potentially crushing margins for meal.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.