The risk is not El Niño. It is being caught off guard by it

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-3.4%
• Oct 10, 2018El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp+4.0%
• May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+1.3%
• Apr 9, 2026Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg+0.9%
• Feb 15, 2023Brazil's corn planting is not the slowest ever, but yield risks are elevated | Reuters-0.3%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-1.7%
• Oct 10, 2018El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp+2.5%
• May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change-0.6%
• Apr 9, 2026Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Feb 16, 2022EXCLUSIVE: Exclusive: Paraguay soy crushers, hit by drought, risk running out of beans | Reuters+8.0%

After 639 past weather events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.0% over 20.

• Feb 16, 2022EXCLUSIVE: Exclusive: Paraguay soy crushers, hit by drought, risk running out of beans | Reuters+3.0%
• Sep 15, 2025La Niña looms over Brazil, raising fears of drought in the South-1.4%
• Oct 1, 2026Historic El Niño puts Brazil crops at risk as Argentina gains a weather edge+2.1%
• Aug 28, 2026Black Sea gridlock, a building El Niño and the US-China soybean gamble | World Ports Organization+4.5%
• Jan 18, 2019What's Behind the Rise in Soybean ETF?+0.5%