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Ukrainian and Russian seaports handle about 30% of global wheat exports, and deep-sea loadings at Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi remain frozen after strikes. Kpler estimates Russian export capacity at 2 to 2.5 million tonnes a month excluding Kavkaz.
A strengthening El Niño threatens Australian wheat and Brazilian soybean yields, and US soybean purchases from China continue.
Frozen Black Sea loadings and El Niño yield risks both support wheat prices, while China's continued soybean buying supports soybean demand.
worldports.orgEmily CarterAug 28, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
