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El Niño is firmly established with Oceanic Niño Index above 2, and Kpler expects it to last at least until February. Brazil's Mato Grosso, producing 29% of its soybeans, typically sees yield falls of 4-5% in El Niño years, while Panama Canal daily transits were cut from 36 to 32.
Potential Brazilian soybean yield losses and record Southeast Asian feed corn imports tighten global supply and support prices. Canal restrictions add freight costs for North American exporters.
worldports.orgMalik JohnsonOct 6, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
