FAO's El Nino Anticipatory Action and Response Plan for August to December 2023 says there is a greater than 90 percent chance El Nino continues through year-end. It forecasts a moderate to strong event into 2024 with heightened drought and flood risk.
A prolonged El Nino raises the risk of crop losses in Asia, Australia and Southern Africa, supporting grain and oilseed prices over the coming seasons.
After 20 past neutral weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +3.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.