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NOAA projects El Niño could develop as early as late summer or fall, with a one-in-three chance of a strong event by late fall. Forecasters expect a hot, dry summer in the western and central US and record-low western snowpack.
A hot summer in the US Plains and West raises drought risk for corn and soybeans during key growing months. Impacts on crops are more likely at harvest or later, so price effects are mainly forward-looking.
agri-pulse.comNoah WicksMar 25, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
