Loading…
NOAA gives a 69% chance that El Niño reaches a historic threshold in October-December 2026, with July Niño-3.4 readings at +1.4°C. Brazil and Argentina enter the 2026-27 planting season facing sharply different weather risks.
A strong El Niño could cut Brazilian soybean and corn output, tightening global supply and supporting prices, while favorable conditions in Argentina could add exports and offset some of that tightness.
agrolatam.comMarcus EllingtonOct 1, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
