
Brazil's soybean sowing for 2019-20 is starting under forecasts of bone-dry weather across most growing regions for at least two weeks. A late soybean start would also squeeze the safrinha corn crop, which is planted right after the beans and makes up more than 70% of Brazil's corn.
Delayed planting and dry conditions in Brazil could cut soybean and safrinha corn output, tightening export supplies to China and supporting prices for both crops.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.