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Erratic weather is threatening Brazil's effort to produce another record soybean crop. Farmers had planted 40% of the 2023-24 crop in early November, slower than a year earlier, while Mato Grosso's planting slipped below the historic pace.
Planting delays raise the risk of lower yields in the world's largest soybean exporter, which supports soybean and meal prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.