CoBank reports prolonged drought and record heat threatening U.S. soybean yields during pod-setting. Soybean planted acreage fell 4.6% year over year to its lowest level since 2020.
CoBank says yield losses would tighten supplies, lower exports and strengthen soybean oil prices.
Lower soybean supplies from heat and reduced acreage support soybean and soybean oil prices, and could cut export volumes.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.